Who Will Win / Who Should Win on Televison’s Biggest Night

Outstanding Comedy Series

The Nominees

• Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/MAX)
• Hacks (HBO/MAX)
• Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Palm Royale (Apple)
• Reservation Dogs (Hulu)
• The Bear (FX / Hulu)
• What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Last Year’s Winner

The Bear (FX)

Eligible This Year?

Yes

What Will Win?

It’s going to be a massive night for The Bear as its sophomore season should easily coast to a dominance of nearly all of the Comedy awards. In reality, only Abbott Elementary has any chance of playing spoiler here.

What Should Win?

This is a lot closer than The Bear sweep will let on. The third incredible season of Hacks was easily one of my favorite things on television in 2024. The fall-off from The Bear to Reservation Dogs, for me, is very very slight. I would jump for joy if Reservation Dogs took this award home. It’s the number one series I recommend to people looking for something to watch. But…alas…you’re not gonna see me pick against The Bear. The second season of Christopher Storer’s rush of adrenaline is the best series in this category. We can talk about whether the third season deserves a win next year…but that’s a different argument for a different day.

Outstanding Drama Series

The Nominees

• 3 Body Problem (Netflix)
• Fallout (Amazon)
• Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Amazon)
• Shogun (FX)
• Slow Horses (Apple)
• The Crown (Netflix)
• The Gilded Age (HBO/MAX)
• The Morning Show (Apple)

Last Year’s Winner

Succession (HBO/MAX)

Eligible This Year?

No

What Will Win?

For the first time in a long time the Emmys don’t have a clear-cut favorite in its biggest category of the night. Depending on what theory you align with this could go in a variety of directions. A lot of people think Shogun will come away with a win after being nominated for a ton of awards. A lot of people think that being the only previous-winner in this category that The Crown is coming away with it. Give me the dark house…or the slow horse, that is. I’m predicting a first win ever in this category for Apple TV from Slow Horses tonight. The series has a lot of momentum with a tremendous fourth season currently airing right now. And I think it will piggy back off a Gary Oldman win earlier in the night. The Morning Show has a remote chance of taking it down given the inexplicable love it received on nomination day. But I think it, along with the other series aren’t really in contention.

What Should Win?

I currently have Shogun as the best series of 2024. I’m going with that. I loved Slow Horses, 3 Body Problem and Fallout….and quite honestly would be fine with any of them winning. But Shogun is the best series in the category and should win the award.

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

The Nominees

• Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
• Fargo (FX)
• Lessons in Chemistry (Apple)
• Ripley (Netflix)
• True Detective: North Country (HBO/MAX)

Last Year’s Winner

Beef (Netflix)

Eligible This Year?

No

What Will Win?

No chance anything but Baby Reindeer wins this award. It’s a weak category to begin with and everyone who watched it loved it. It will win other awards on the night and be a crystal clear darling of the evening

What Should Win?

Baby Reindeer…and it’s not particularly close. Ripley is the only worthy contender here, and I liked Baby Reindeer much more. In classic Benharris fashion I never got around to Fargo. The other two series wer fine but, quite honestly, in a different class.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The Nominees

• Idris Elba (Hijack)
• Donald Glover (Mr. And Mrs. Smith)
• Walton Goggins (Fallout)
• Gary Oldman (Slow Horses)
• Hiroyuki Sanada (Shogun)
• Dominic West (The Crown)

Last Year’s Winner

Kieran Culkin (Succession)

Eligible This Year?

No

Who Will Win?

Gary Oldman will win his first of what will likely be a string of awards tonight. Undoubtably he’s deserving of it, but I don’t think he’s the most deserving in the category.

Who Should Win?

Hiroyuki Sananda should be the winner. His incredible performance as Lord Toranaga in FX’s superb rendition of the classic was a highlight of the entire series. I would give it to him…but it’s undoubtably close. Walton Goggins was fantastic in Fallout (albeit I’d argue he’s not a lead). Speaking of not-a-lead, I’m absolutely shocked that Cosmo Jarvis wasn’t also nominated in this category for Shogun. If he were, he would’ve been my choice.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

The Nominees

• Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
• Carrie Coon (The Guilded Age)
• Maya Erskine (Mr. And Mrs. Smith)
• Anna Sawai (Shogun)
• Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
• Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)

Last Year’s Winner

Sarah Snook (Succession)

Eligible This Year?

No

Who Will Win?

Imelda Staunton wasn’t even nominated last year for her turn on The Crown and that was a shame. She goes in tonight as the favorite and will likely pull it off.

Who Should Win?

Anna Sawai and it isn’t close

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

The Nominees

• Tadanobu Asano (Shogun)
• Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
• Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
• Jon Hamm (The Morning Show)
• Takehiro Hira (Shogun)
• Jack Lowden (Slow Horses)

Last Year’s Winner

Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)

Eligible This Year?

No

Who Will Win?

Jack Lowden is the obvious benefactor of two other series having actors who potentially cancel each other out. But as i said earlier, I think it’s going to be a surprise Slow Horses night and Lowden will benefit from that.

Who Should Win?

I loved Tadanobu Asano as the wormy Yabushi on Shogun. For me it’s between him and Lowden. I’m fine with really either of them.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

The Nominees

• Christine Baranski (The Guilded Age)
• Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show)
• Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
• Greta Lee (The Morning Show)
• Leslie Manville (The Crown)
• Karen Pittman (The Morning Show)
• Holland Taylor (The Morning Show)

Last Year’s Winner

Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)

Eligible This Year?

No

Who Will Win?

Elizabeth Debicki

Who Should Win?

In a category that I care the least about for the entire night (for the first time ever as I spent the last ten years screaming into a void about shutting gout Rhea Seehorn) I really couldn’t care less. But give me Debicki.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

The Nominees

• Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
• Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
• Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
• D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs)

Last Year’s Winner

Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

Eligible This Year?

No

Who Will Win?

It’s gonna be a massive night for The Bear and Jeremy Allen White ain’t leavin’ the joint without his second consecutive win. It IS (allegedly) Larry David’s last chance at winning the award that has evaded him for his entire career, so that might be enough to put him over the top. But the “might” in that sentence is doing a ton of work. No one else is really in the conversation.

Who Should Win?

I love Jeremy Allen White as much as the next guy, but get D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai up there. Leading an all-time great series without the pedigree of the other guys and also being a kid. He absolutely should win the award. I’m obviously fine with Allen White winning and am very confident that he will. I’ve been in camp “Give Matt Berry an Emmy” forever. So I also think he, theoretically, “should” win. I actively hated the third season of Only Murders in the Building and I sincerely hope they don’t do something stupid by rewarding one of those guys….but if they did, I’m a Martin over Short man all day long.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The Nominees

• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
• Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
• Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
• Maya Rudolph (Loot)
• Jean Smart (Hacks)
• Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale)

Last Year’s Winner

Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)

Eligible This Year?

Yes

Who Will Win?

Jean Smart is my choice in an incredibly tight race.

Who Should Win?

Holy forking shirt! What a loaded category! This one is, BY FAR, the most stacked category of the night. I mean, I’m gonna jump right out and say Ayo Edebiri. I’m not gonna root against Ayo Edebiri for a variety of reasons; not the least of them was that her performance was flawless in Season 2 of The Bear. That being said, to say Jean Smart or Quinta Brunson “shouldn’t win,” is lunacy. They both absolutely should. This is Selena Gomez’s first Emmy nomination and for three years I’ve been ranting that she deserves the nods way more than the men do. Is she worth of a win here. You bet your ass she is…but she’s clearly a distant fourth if not fifth or sixth. Wiig and Rudolph are comedy legends but for one night they’re clearly out of their element and in a different tier than the other four women.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

The Nominees

• Lionel Boyce (The Bear)
• Paul W. Downs (Hacks)
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
• Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building)
• Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
• Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

Last Year’s Winner

Ebon Moss-Bacharach (The Bear)

Eligible This Year?

Yes

Who Will Win?

Ebon Moss-Bacharach (The Bear) will be another worthy recipient of his second straight acting award for the second season of the series. The only difference between him and Jeremy Allen White is that Moss-Bacharach was markedly better in the second season than he was in the first…so it’d be kind of silly not to reward him this year when he won last year for a worse performance. I can also see Lionel Boyce winning for The Bear if they go in any other direction….and he should. He was great in it.

Who Should Win?

Paul W. Downs was so good in this season of Hacks that I truly think he deserves the win here. That’s not to say that I don’t think Moss-Bacharach, Boyce or Williams (a past winner) deserve it, and I’d be happy with any of them winning. Also, why the absolute fuck was Paul Rudd nominated here?

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

The Nominees

• Carol Burnett (Palm Royale)
• Liza Colon-Zayas (The Bear)
• Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
• Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
• Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
• Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building)

Last Year’s Winner

Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)

Eligible This Year?

No

Who Will Win?

The Emmys had a chance to give Carol Burnett an Emmy for Better Call Saul last year and they didn’t. They won’t repeat that. She’ll win in a category that, quite honestly she shouldn’t…despite her status as The Goat.

Who Should Win?

Meryl Streep makes way more sense than Paul Rudd as a nominee, but dear god did she annoy the hell out of me in Only Murders in the Building. I love Sheryl Lee Ralph and think she could easily win again. Liza Colon-Zayas SHOULDN’T win, but she SHOULD win nest year. Give me Hannah Einbinder all day long in this category. She’s long overdue and she’s so incredibly wonderful in the Hacks’ third season. I’m strongly pulling for her tonight.