Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Presumptive Nominees

• 1. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
• 2. Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face)
• 3. Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• 4. Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
• 5. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
• 6. Devry Jacobs (Reservation Dogs)

Odd Woman Out

• Christina Applegate (Dead To Me)

Potential Surprise Nominations

• Elle Fanning (The Great)
• Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere)

2022 Emmy Winner

• Jean Smart (Hacks)

Eligible This Year? (No)

Barring a cliche Ted Lasso domination after a fairly disappointing final (or not) season, it should be all about Abbott Elementary this year. The critically acclaimed series is resonating with viewers for a variety of reasons. Not the least of them is the charm and talent of its creator and star Quinta Brunson. Brunson should easily win an Emmy this year for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series. A lot of people thought she would win in an upset over Jean Smart last year, but Smart won her second consecutive award for Hacks. With Hacks not being eligible, Brunson is the heavy favorite.

What likely won’t be occurring again this year will be the a repeat performance of Jimmy Kimmel who did some ridiculous stunt on stage last year during Brusnon’s acceptance speech for a writing award. Kimmel’s idiotic behavior was the most talked about spectacle of the night; shamefully distracting from the Brunson’s moment.

Rachel Brosnahan should also easily get another nomination for her last go-around on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel before she moves on to play Lois Lane in the new Superman film.

Natasha Lyonne was damn-near perfect on Peacock’s Poker Face. She’s a multi-time nominee for other series (Orange is the New Black / Russian Doll), and could be an underrated pick to actually win the award in an upset.

For whatever reason, Jenna Ortega seems to be a hot choice for a nomination for Netflix’s Wednesday. Being one of the series I haven’t watched, I don’t really have a lot to say about that.

I would love to see Devry Jacobs get nominated for her gritty and moving performance on FX’s Reservation Dogs. The series (which announced that it is ending with the upcoming 3rd season) is repeatedly high on critics’ lists of “must watches.”

Likewise, the Emmys will probably right a wrong from last year and nominate Selena Gomez as she spent another year carrying the weight of her annoying two co-workers who somehow get all the credit for a series she’s by far the best part of.

Christina Applegate has been nominated for this award for both seasons of Dead to Me. The third season mostly dropped to crickets. It’s not that she wasn’t good in it…or even good enough to be nominated again. It’s just that the voters might not care anymore.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see both leads from The Great nominated. Elle Fanning and Nicholas Hoult were both nominated for Golden Globes.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Presumptive Nominees

• 1. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
• 2. Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
• 3. Bill Hader (Barry)
• 4. Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
• 5. Jason Segal (Shrinking)
• 6. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
• 7. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)

Odd Men Out

• Donald Glover (Atlanta)
• Matthew Berry / Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows)

Potential Surprise Nominations

• Dave “Lil Dicky” Burd (Dave)
• Keegan-Michael Key (Reboot)

2022 Emmy Winner

• Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)

Eligible This Year? (Yes)

In what will be the definitive moment for the Emmys in 2023, we’ll find out if Jason Sudeikis will be rubber-stamped for a third consecutive win or if they’ll branch out and give it to Jeremy Allen White who has beaten him at both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards.

The reason for the definitiveness is that I think if Sudeikis wins here, Ted Lasso will also win Outstanding Comedy Series…an award that should probably otherwise go to either Abbott Elementary or The Bear (or any series that’s not Ted Lasso, to be truly honest).

Sudeikis will go into the night as the favorite, but expect FX to campaign heavily for Carmy. It won’t hurt that voters will have The Bear fresh off a 2nd season watch while Ted Lasso was both several months ago, and also kind of crappy. Regardless, the Emmys have been notorious for historically rubber-stamping past winners, and that’s why Sudeikis will probably ultimately win.

Also…they’re both locks.

As is Bill Hader who probably won’t win his second award for Barry…nor, really, should he. He was as good as ever in the final season, but he wasn’t as good as either of the aforementioned actors. But he’s a lock for a nomination.

Short and Martin were both nominated last year, and I suspect they’ll both get nominated this year. I flirted with calling them the odd men out. But the reality is that they’re such staples at award series like this that they’re not going to snub them. Neither stands a chance to win it, though.

Like Elle Fanning, I like Nicholas Hoult for a nomination in The Great. I also think Jason Segal will come in as a huge long shot for his wonderful work on Shrinking.

I don’t like Donald Glover or the What We Do in the Shadows guys for nominations. I mean, I LIKE them…but I don’t think they’ll get them.

I would love to see Dave Burd get nominated for his excellent performance in FX’s Dave. Although if I had my choice, I’d rather see GaTa nominated in the supporting actor category.

Keegan Michael-Key would be an interesting surprise nomination here for the mostly good, but now very cancelled “Reboot.”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Presumptive Nominees

• 1. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
• 2. Sarah Snook (Succession)
• 3. Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
• 4. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
• 5. Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters)
• 6. Helen Mirren (1923)

Odd Woman Out

• Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Potential Surprise Nomination

• Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)

2022 Emmy Winner

• Zendaya (Euphoria)

Eligible This Year? (No)

With only one nominee from 2022 being eligible this year, this is the most wide-open race of the night. Melanie Lynskey will almost certainly get her second consecutive nomination for Yellowjackets and will likely be the favorite to win it. But the odds will be fairly close.

Sarah Snook who moves from supporting actress eligibility to lead actress is right on her tail. Succession will get a ton of nominations, and this one is an obvious lock.

There’s a lot to love about Bella Ramsey. First, at 19 years old they would be the youngest performer ever to win the award. Second, they would be the first openly non-binary performer to win it. Third, in my opinion it’s the most deserving performance of the year. I’m eager to see how warmed up to The Last of Us the Emmys truly will be. It’s conceivable that it garners a ton of nominations but it’s also conceivable that it gets overlooked all-together. Regardless, Ramsey is a must, here.

I feel like Bad Sisters will be the series to kind of come out of nowhere this year to get a lot of Emmy recognition. The always wonderful Sharon Horgan who’s been overdue for an acting Emmy for years could be a surprise nod.

It’s Imelda Staunton’s turn to be nominated for The Crown…a series that the Emmys historically worships. She’s a pretty safe bet

After that, it’s sort of a toss-up. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Elisabeth Moss get snubbed for the first time since The Handmaid’s Tale was released. But she’s generally a safe bet for a nomination.

Equally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Christine Baranski sneak in for her great performance on Paramount +’s otherwise mediocre series The Good Fight.

I also wouldn’t be shocked if both Sophie Nelisse and Melanie Lynskey are nominated for Yellowjackets. I’m not certain if it’d be the first time two people were nominated for the same award for playing the same character in a series…but it would make it interesting enough to incentivize voters to do it.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Presumptive Nominees

1. Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

2. Kieran Culkin (Succession)

3. Jeremy Strong (Succession)

4. Brian Cox (Succession)

5. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)

6. Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)

Odd Man Out

• Diego Luna (Andor)

Potential Surprise Nominations

• Elliot Page (The Umbrella Academy)

2022 Emmy Winner

Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game)

Eligible this Year? (No)

FIRST…A WARNING…

SPOILERS ARE CONTAINED BELOW ABOUT THE FINAL SEASON OF SUCCESSION.

Please don’t read the following synopsis if you haven’t seen but intend on watching the final season of Succession. I hate spoilers, and try as hard as I can to avoid including them when I write these…but there is really no way of having the below discussion without one

THIS CONCLUDES THE WARNING

The big question a few months ago was; where should you put Brian Cox if you wanted to reward him for the final season of Succession?…if you have kept reading despite the above warning. Please stop now…

Cox’s Logan Roy was shockingly killed off very early into the final season of Succession, leaving Emmy voters sort of lost as to what they would do with him. There was suggestion that he could be nominated as a supporting actor or even a guest actor as so many series have done when they’ve killed off a main character in similar fashion previously…but none-the-less, HBO just decided to enter him in the lead actor category…so here we are.

To start, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cox isn’t even nominated at all. His inclusion in the final season of Succession was mostly ancillary anyway. For the longest time Kieran Culkin seemed to be the most likely winner in the category…leaping ahead of previous winner Jeremy Strong. But by the end of the series that seemed to cool a bit. None-the-less, they’ll both be nominated. That’s a guarantee.

What’s also a guarantee is that Bob Odenkirk will be back around for his last time as Saul Goodman, trying to win the award that he’s been shut out of five times previously (six if you count 2020 when for some ridiculous reason he wasn’t even nominated). Expect Odenkirk to be the favorite to win this year. If the Succession guys cancel each other out, he’ll absolutely be the beneficiary.

Jeff Bridges is my pick to both get a nomination and also compete very well as a spoiler for the award. Looking back at last year’s winner, it’s kind of shocking that neither a Succession actor nor Bob Odenkirk won…and that it went to Lee Jung-jae in a good, but not overly memorable performance makes it a bit more puzzling. Jeff Bridges would sort of represent the same kind of winner this year…and also, he’s Jeff Bridges…so there’s that.

Pedro Pascal SHOULD get on the board for The Last of Us. Albeit the Emmys are stupid enough to nominate him for The Mandalorian instead, so watch out for that. If he doesn’t get on the board, look for Diego Luna to slide in for Andor.

Watch for a surprise nomination for Elliot Page for The Umbrella Academy. Undertaking a drastic change in his character from the first two seasons was no small task.